The Trump administration has repeatedly framed its hardline immigration crackdown as an economic win — one that would ease the cost of living and make everyday life more affordable for Americans. A new report pushes back hard on that promise, arguing the exact opposite is happening.
Released by the advocacy group America’s Voice, the analysis contends that the president’s mass deportation campaign has driven up the cost of groceries, housing and healthcare — while squeezing local economies in the process.
The group has a name for these rising costs: the “ICE Tax,” a nod to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Its core argument is simple — pull enough immigrant workers out of the economy, and the price of the goods and services they help produce starts to climb.
“Forcibly deporting hundreds of thousands of essential workers means extra dollars at the grocery checkout, the home that costs six figures more to build, the corner store that goes quiet after a raid, the job that disappears when a coworker never comes back to work,” said Vanessa Cardenas, executive director of America’s Voice, in a statement reported by CNBC.
What the numbers show
America’s Voice reviewed 12 months of federal price data ending in June, and says the sharpest increases showed up in foods that lean heavily on immigrant labor. Lettuce jumped 31%, fresh citrus rose 6% and apples climbed 7%.
The effect isn’t limited to the produce aisle, either.
In the Northeastern U.S., permits for new single-family homes dropped 23.5% between March 2025 and June 2026 — a region where immigrants make up 23% of the construction workforce. Over roughly the same stretch, new home prices in the Northeast rose 15.4% from the first quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026.
Home healthcare tells a similar story. With immigrants accounting for about 40% of that workforce, costs there have risen 10.7% over the past year.
To its credit, the report acknowledges that immigration policy isn’t the only pressure on prices — weather disruptions and higher fuel costs are also part of the picture.
“No single figure proves the case on its own. But category after category, the products and services that rely most on immigrant labor are the ones pulling away from the rest of the economy. That’s a cost with a cause, not a coincidence,” the report states.
How aggressive is the crackdown?
The scale here is worth pausing on. The president has set a target of deporting roughly one million people per year. In July alone, ICE took more than 46,000 people into custody over alleged immigration violations — the highest monthly total on record, according to CBS News. The agency is reportedly under White House pressure to log 2,000 arrests a day.
The policy has drawn heavy criticism over its tactics, with opponents raising human rights concerns, and ICE has faced scrutiny following a series of high-profile deaths. The America’s Voice report adds a new dimension to that debate — an economic one.
The White House response
The Trump administration isn’t buying the report’s conclusions. In a statement to CNBC, White House spokesperson Lauren Bis rejected its findings and instead pointed to former President Joe Biden.
“Thanks to the Biden administration releasing millions of illegals into our country, rent increased, car insurance premiums skyrocketed, the quality of our health care and education declined and wages dropped for American workers,” Bis wrote. “President Trump is ending the affordability crisis caused in part by the Biden administration’s open border policies by putting American citizens first.”
The bottom line
Where you land on the “ICE Tax” likely depends on where you already stand politically. But the underlying question affects every household budget: as immigrant labor is pulled out of key industries, who ultimately absorbs the cost? The data in this report suggests the answer may show up at your grocery store, your closing table and your pharmacy counter — even if the debate over why is far from settled.
By Rinna Diamantakos | Economy